Decadal-Scale Forecasting of ENSO and Implications for Arable Crop Prices

The increase of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Revolution is generally considered to be not a good thing. ENSO events alter the global atmospheric circulation and patterns of weather variability worldwide, with farreaching effects on human and natural systems. Floods, droughts, heat waves, and other extreme events associated with both warm and cold phases of ENSO have major impacts on agricultural production, food security, freshwater resources, public health, power generation, and economic vitality in many nations.It is perhaps ironic, then, that a (positive) side-effect of global warming, as we shall show, is the predictability of ENSO (on decadal timescales; Leamon et al., E&SS, 2021). To be sure, global warming has made their (economic) effects worse, but at least now their occurrence is predictable.An analysis of over 60 years of corn, oats and wheat prices show that while spot prices fluctuate significantly, decadal-scale trends, and price shocks, are correlatable and predictable, including the recent run-up on prices since the onset of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean in the middle of last year: a clear socio-economic impact of Earth and space science on society.