Whether the vulnerability of climate change solely depends on the socio-economic strata of farming community and how the tradeoff of adaptation and mitigation strategies influence the strategy? - Results from Indo-Gangetic Plains-India study

The annual mean land surface air temperature averaged over India was +0.290C above normal (based on the data of 1981-2010) and the year 2020 was the eighth warmest year on record since nation-wide records commenced in 1901. Heavy rainfall, floods, heat waves, thunderstorms, cold waves etc reported claimed 1565 lives over the country and this shows climate change is happening. It is projected that under RCP 4.5, the temperature increase at the 75th percentile will be 1.1C and 3.0 C during rabi season (DecemberFebruary) in 2035 and 2100, respectively, and the corresponding precipitation will also increase on the order of 4%and 14%. However, during kharif season (June to August), the increase of temperature will be 0.9C and 2.4C in 2035 and 2100, respectively, and the corresponding precipitation will also increase on the order of 6% and 13%. By 2030, rice and wheat are likely to see about 6-10 per cent decrease in yields. However, crops like potatoes, soybean, chickpea and mustard, on which climate change will have a neutral or positive impact. Under AgMIP-ICAR Collaborative Project, a study was undertaken to study the impact of climate change at farm level by linking climate-crop-economic models at Meerut District, Uttar Pradesh and Karnal District, Haryana. GCM Climate Change Projections of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 under cool/dry, hot/wet, hot/dry, cool/wet and middle climate subsets were identified from 29 GCMs and used APSIM and DSSAT crop models for impact analysis. TOA-MD model used for studying the economic impact at farm level under climate change situations. It is found that rice yield will decline by 12 % and wheat yield by 24 % in 2050s even with recommended irrigation application. Net farm returns decline by 14 % and per capita income by 9 % under the hot/dry climate scenario. 74 % households could be vulnerable to climate change in the 2050s. Using adaptations, rice and wheat yields can increase by 13 % and net farm return can also increase by 9-17 % and per capita income by 8-10 % under different future scenarios. This study revealed that there is a strong tradeoff exist between socio-economic strata and climate change impacts and vulnerability and thereby clear tradeoff between adaptation and mitigation benefits.