The Kids Arent Alright

With the emergence of a global climate youth movement, questions of inter-generational justice regarding climate change mitigation have come to the fore. However, a scientific perspective on inter-generational climate impacts is still lacking. Here we perform a birth cohort analysis by combining an unprecedented collection of multi-model impact projections (for droughts, heatwaves, tropical cyclones, crop failures, river floods, and wildfires) with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. We find that children born in 2020 are projected to experience 2-7 times more extreme events globally under current climate pledges than someone born in 1960. Children born in the present and future are much more likely to be born in regions facing the highest increase in lifetime extreme event exposure. For example, 53 million children born in Europe and Central Asia between 2016 and 2020 will experience 3.8-4.0 times more extreme events under current pledges, but 172 million children of the same age in sub-Saharan Africa face a factor 5.5-5.9 increase in lifetime extreme event exposure, including a factor 50-54 increase in lifetime heatwave exposure. Limiting warming to 1.5°C consistently reduces that burden while still leaving younger generations with unavoidable impacts that are unmatched by those experienced by older generations. Our results provide a scientific basis to understand the position from which younger generations challenge the present shortfall of adequate climate action.