Droughts: national and international impacts, risk management, and security

Traditional risk assessment and management strategies are increasingly challenged by systemic impacts of extremes, variability and change across time and space. As noted in several scientific assessments, some feedbacks and potential state shifts can be modeled and quantified; others can be identified but not quantified; and some are still unknown. Within these constraints, traditional risk management approaches can give rise to new vulnerabilities, and reduce capacity to adapt to unexpected events. The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events raise the potential for cascading impacts resulting in system disruptions. Recent widespread, severe, and multiyear droughts (e.g., in the U.S., Australia, Europe, Brazil, Syria, the Greater Horn of Africa, Russia and Mexico) have been instrumental in moving the conversation forward to an awareness of drought as a globally-networked risk involving food, water and in some cases national security. To date, these 21st century events, to some extent explain the emergence of several national and state plans and research initiatives centered on drought risk reduction. Systemic risk management and governance strategies are fundamentally different for regular approaches in that they are founded on notions of complexity, ambiguity and diversity. This presentation will characterize results of actions Building understanding of the necessary governance, sustained knowledge development and enabling conditions to effectively address challenges and foster implementation in which the author has played central roles including the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Special Report on Drought (2021) the first global assessment focused on drought, the National Drought Resilience Partnership, and priorities at the national and regional levels in the context of ongoing drought and future conditions in the US. We will outline priorities for Diagnosing the barriers and opportunities for understanding the changing complexity of drought Deepening understanding of the links between drought-related securities (water, food, energy, conflict etc.) Building understanding of the necessary governance, sustained knowledge development and enabling conditions to effectively address systemic risks at regional, national and international scales