ScenarioMIP: Some results and looking ahead to new experimental designs.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections based on concentration driven simulations within CMIP6. Forty climate models from all over the world contributed Tier 1 and Tier 2 experiments according to the new SSP-based scenarios, and we here present an overview of some global scale temperature and precipitation results over the 21st century. We show a comparison with the corresponding scenarios from CMIP5, address signal emergence and scenario separation, and time left until the crossing of global warming thresholds, particularly the Paris agreements 1.5C and 2.0C levels. We also show patterns of long-term change and their variability across scenarios and models. Looking ahead to future design of scenario experiments, we present a novel approach to climate model emulation that may contribute to simplifying the choice of which future scenarios should be run by the earth system modeling community. The approach recreates fully consistent and exhaustive ESM output for arbitrary intermediate pathways of global temperature change given a small number of simulations available under bracketing scenarios. We propose that the method has the potential to satisfy the needs of the climate impact research community, representing an effective substitute to ESM simulations, and significant savings in the resources put towards producing forcing input for them.