Persistent effects of El Nino on economic growth in present and future climates

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability in the Earth system, shaping local climate and human well-being through global teleconnection patterns. Despite ENSOs dominance of global climate variability, its future changes have not been integrated into analyses of the macroeconomic costs of climate change. In particular, recent empirical analyses attempting to quantify the effect of global warming on economic growth have generally focused on average temperature and precipitation rather than accompanying changes to global climate variability. This omission leaves open the possibility for substantial and unquantified economic costs of climate change. Here we address this gap in two steps. First, we use dynamic panel regression methods to show that El Nino has a substantial negative effect on national economic growth that persists and accumulates over time, the magnitude of which depends on the strength of the teleconnection between ENSO and a countrys climate. Second, we use state-of-the-art climate models to project joint changes in ENSO and its teleconnections, allowing us to examine how ENSOs effects on economic growth evolve under multiple emissions scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that even independent of changes to El Nino itself, stronger teleconnections resulting from a stronger atmospheric response to sea surface temperature fluctuations may reduce future global economic growth. This work more fully incorporates complex changes in climate variability and extremes into an analysis of the economic costs of global warming, with findings that increase the urgency of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.