Evaluating Consequences to Ecological, Societal, and Economic Objectives through Decision Analysis under Uncertainty in Louisianas Climate Action Planning Process

Louisiana is undertaking a Climate Action Planning Process as directed by Governor Edwards executive order committing to net zero GHG emissions by 2050. This process is using a Structured Decision Making (SDM) framework to guide the Climate Task Force (CTF) created by the EO. In SDM, consequence analysis helps the decisionmaker assess tradeoffs against fundamental objectives. The fundamental objectives include GHG reduction, but also societal, economic, and other objectives deemed fundamental to the CTF. Louisiana faced several challenges in conducting this consequence analysis: a lack of state-specific modeling for multiple objectives, an outdated greenhouse gas inventory, and a very short planning timeline. To resolve these challenges, we developed a consequence analysis approach and applied it in two rounds using multiple analytical methods. For the first round, we developed five hypothetical portfolios each encompassing a set of strategies focused on a single hypothetical emission reduction scenario (e.g., renewable energy only, natural sequestration only). These portfolios were analyzed in two ways: a beta version of the Louisiana Energy Policy Simulator tool developed by Energy Innovation and RMI, and an expert elicitation survey for the CTFs advisory groups to assess impacts to the non-GHG fundamental objectives. Results were compiled and presented to the CTF to guide action and strategy development. The second round analyzed a single draft portfolio of strategies and actions that will set Louisiana on a path to net zero. Tools and methods were similar and supplemented by desktop research where modeling is infeasible. Results were presented to the CTF throughout the process to guide action selection and refinement. An innovative approach to planning decision support was required and enabled nuanced analysis of the challenges and potential of climate action approaches to position the CTF to make informed decisions. By combining tools and methods, we enabled the planning process to include consideration of the outcomes of potential actions in a systematic and transparent way.