Statistical Framework to Assess the East River Watershed Temporal and Spatial Climate Changes
Abstract
A statistical framework to assess the long-term climatic water balance changes has been developed. The framework includes the following phases of the data analysis: (1) a time series analysis of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), (2) calculations of potential evapotranspiration, aridity index, and actuarial evapotranspiration, as well as the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and (3) climatic zonation based on the application of the hierarchical k-means clustering and Principal Component Analysis of temporal trends of meteorological parameters and SPEI. The presentation will include the results of the application of the developed statistical framework for 17 meteorological stations located at the East River watershed using the meteorological datasets for the period from 1966 to 2019. Structural changes of time trends of measured and calculated water balance parameters are used to determine the time of abrupt climatic changes. Calculations of the evapotranspiration are conducted using a combination of Thornthwaite, Hargreaves, Penman-Monteith, and Budyko models. The averaging of time series data from different locations within each cluster zone is provided using the maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging. The seasonal time variations of the meteorological and calculated parameters before and after abrupt climatic changes are evaluated using parametric and nonparametric statistics.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.H55H0834F