Evaluating Future Rainfall Quantiles in South Korea based on the CMIP6 Projections
Abstract
Climate change could pose tremendous challenges to maintaining and managing the water infrastructures in the world. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are increasing according to the impact of climate change, and unexpected floods caused enormous socio-economic damages for China and Germany in 2021. Extreme flood and rainfall are highly interrelated in related hydrological research area. Therefore, future rainfall quantile is located at quite important and meaningful in the hydrological field of climate change research. In this study, the performance in extreme rainfall of global climate models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) over South Korea was evaluated. The evaluation of precipitation for the historical period and projection for future period changes were conducted. The future changes are computed for three time slices (2011-2040, 20412070, and 20712100) relative to the reference period (19812010) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP24.5 and SSP58.5). We compared the future rainfall quantiles based on various GCMs for each projection period and quantitatively compared and the differences between the results of each model. Acknowledgments This research was suported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(No. NRF-2021R1I1A1A01061272).
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.H45ZA.07K