A Multivariable Regression Model for Long-term Municipal Water Demand Projection in Shanghai, China

(Peiyao Xu and Yuan Tang contributed equally to this work and should be considered co-first authors.) Abstract: Long-term municipal water demand projection is crucial for urban water supply planning and sustainable water management. This is especially important for mega cities such as Shanghai where rapid urban growth and lifestyle change are expected to have profound impacts on water uses. Based on historical data from climatic and socioeconomic records, water supply technologies, and municipal water uses, a multivariable regression model is developed for long-term municipal water demand forecasting in Shanghai. General trend is reflected using dynamic time function with the independent variable being the logarithm of year index. Multicollinearity among the drivers of municipal water demand is analyzed using the step-regression method. The model also considers impacts of population age structure. The results are further analyzed by comparing against water uses in other mega cities to gain policy insights for sustainable urban water management.