Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts and Water and Energy Management : Progress and Challenges
Abstract
Despite a significant number of studies demonstrating the utility of seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts, real-world application of forecasts for water resources decision-making are very limited. In the first part of my talk, I distill findings from our past work on how hydroclimatic forecasts could be utilized for water supply, irrigation and hydropower generation. Towards this, we propose a flexible, generic modeling framework, GRAPS (Generalized multi-Reservoir Analysis using Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts), that estimates the reliabilities of user-specified releases for a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system. GRAPS has also been linked with an energy system model, TEMOA, to co-optimize TVAs water and power systems that consist of 28 reservoirs and 54 power plants. Our analysis shows co-optimizing these two systems for TVA is beneficial in the summer as the power system is more dependent on hydropower during the summer. Perspectives on reservoir system characteristics that could benefit even from modest skill in inflow forecasts are also discussed. In the second part of my talk, I discuss the challenges in utilizing hydroclimatic forecasts for water and power systems management. Of all, the primary challenge seems to be arising from the responsibility of multiple entities managing different purposes of the reservoir. Water managers and practitioners are often risk-averse and are reluctant to change their current practices of operating the systems based on fixed rule curves. This together with modest forecast skill and the associated uncertainty make it hard to institutionalize forecast-based operation. To overcome these challenges, I emphasize the need for institutional coordination and also the need to develop experimental streamflow and storage forecasts to educate the water managers of potential benefits. The importance of updating these forecasts and current conditions on a continuous basis in reducing the uncertainty in water allocation will also be discussed.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.H44G..01A