The Agricultural Rebound Phenomenon: Why, What, and How?
Abstract
Modernizing traditional irrigation systems has long been recognized as a means to reduce water losses. However, empirical evidence shows that this practice may not necessarily reduce water use in the long run; in fact, in many cases, the converse is truea concept known as the rebound phenomenon. This phenomenon raises three main questions: (1) why does such a phenomenon emerge in a river basin? (2) What are the main socio-economic factors controlling the rebound phenomenon over time? (3) How can we avoid the rebound phenomenon in future sustainable water planning? To address these questions, we first develop an agent-based agricultural water demand (ABAD) model, which simulates farmers behavior in adopting new on-farm irrigation systems and/or changing crop patterns in response to drought conditions. We apply this model in the Bow River Basin in Alberta, Canada, which is home to extensive irrigated farmlands with a history of drought experience. Next, we perform a time-varying variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the ABAD model to examine the individual effect of factors, as well as their joint effect, that may give rise to the rebound phenomenon in the BRB. ABAD demonstrates (1) how farmers attitude toward profits, risk aversion, environmental protection, social interaction, and irrigation expansion explains the dynamics of the water demand and (2) how the conservation program may paradoxically lead to the rebound phenomenon. Our GSA results show that economic factors dominantly control possible rebounds. Although social interaction among farmers is found to be less influential than the irrigation expansion factor, its interaction effect with other factors becomes more important, indicating the highly interactive nature of the underlying socio-hydrological system. Based on the insights gained via GSA, we discuss several strategies, including community participation and water restrictions, that can be adopted to avoid the rebound phenomenon in irrigation systems. This study demonstrates how an agent-based model with an advanced GSA can provide a better understanding of the co-evolutionary dynamics of the socio-hydrological systems and can pave the way for better management of water resources.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.H43G..02G