Assessing changes in terrestrial and aquatic snow-driven habitat using climate change analogues
Abstract
The United States Rocky Mountains are home to several snow-adapted species like Wolverine (Gulo gulo) and Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus). The future survival of these species depends on the availability of denning habitat and suitable streamflow temperature and magnitude, driven largely by winter snow magnitude, snow spatial heterogeneity, and spring snowmelt rates. However, our ability to simulate hillslope-scale snowpack, and our understanding of how snow and streamflow will change in future climates, are lacking. Here, we use a multidecadal (1985 2021) snow reanalysis, which retrospectively reanalyzes snowpack using a process-based model and satellite observations of snow disappearance, to identify climatic conditions and snowfall analogous to future climate scenarios. Using these climate analogues, and hydrologic flows routed by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), we test the changes to terrestrial and aquatic habitat with 1) various snow reanalysis spatial resolutions (ranging between 60 and 500 m gridcells), and 2) various climate change scenarios. We investigate these sensitivities in the United States Rocky Mountain National Park, specifically comparing the impact that different spatial resolutions and different climatic conditions have on target days of interest, including peak snow volume timing, May 1st areal extent of suitable Wolverine habitat, and streamflow center of timing. These results are designed to examine current and future threats posed to snow-adapted wildlife and inform the management and classification of these species.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.C43B..01P