The role of ocean heat transport from the Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean on sea ice variability
Abstract
The decrease of Arctic sea ice affects the future climate in the Arctic and beyond. Therefore, it is important to understand the drivers of sea ice variability and trend. Available observations of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea show a strong negative correlation with sea ice area and extent in Barents Sea over the period from 1997 to 2010. Several observational and model studies conclude that the ocean heat transport is the main driver for sea ice decrease and variability. In our study, we analyse a historical simulation with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) performed for CMIP6 from 1850 to 2014 and ocean sea ice simulations forced by atmospheric reanalysis data with the same ocean model NEMOv3.6 and sea ice model CICEv5.1. The UKESM simulation confirms previous findings showing that the ocean heat transport between Norway and Svalbard (Barents Sea Opening; BSO) is strongly correlated with the winter sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and the whole Arctic. However, there is no correlation in the atmospheric-forced simulations suggesting that the interaction between atmosphere and ocean is crucial. All simulations show a strong correlation between the annual mean incoming longwave radiation (LRD) with winter sea ice extent and thickness in the Barents Sea. Comparing years with strongest and weakest BSO ocean transport and LRD underpin that the BSO ocean heat transport does hardly affect sea ice directly. We conclude that atmospheric circulation is driving both the variability of winter sea ice extent and BSO ocean heat transport.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.C35D0914S