CMIP6 Models Reveal Faster and Larger Increases in Arctic Precipitation than Previously Projected

With continued enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to lower latitudes, the region will likely experience unprecedented environmental change. Previous studies have shown that the hydrological cycle is expected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century with more precipitation projected. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows that the hydrological cycle changes will be more rapid than previously forecast. Enhanced warming and a greater moisture source, from more open water and moisture flux in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 will result in greater increases of precipitation. This will also lead to an earlier transition to a rainfall-dominated precipitation with regional changes in precipitation likely under a 1.5­oC global warming scenario all of which will yield significant environmental, climatic and socio-economic consequences.