Meridional variation of the location of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity over the western North Pacific: the contributions of tropical cyclone track patterns and in-pattern variation
Abstract
Over the past 40 years, the annual mean location of tropical cyclones (TCs) lifetime maximum intensities (LMIs) has been poleward migration. A previous study (Moon et al. 2015) found that the global poleward of TCs LMI's latitude was influenced by the frequency of TCs genesis in each sea area. In this study, seven hundred thirty TCs that occurred in the Northwest Pacific in 19822019 were classified into 7 clusters according to track types using Fuzzy C-mean Clustering. Using the track patterns., we evaluated the effects of track pattern change (TRACK CHANGE) and in-pattern change (PURE CHANGE) in the total variation of LMI location. In the long-term variation, the time series of PURE CHANGE showed a statistically significant positive trend while TRACK CHANGE showed no long-term trend. The long-term poleward migrations were found in the TCs in the tropics (TCs over the South China Sea or moving straightly across the Philippines) rather than north-oriented track pattern. The long-term variation in the PURE CHANGE was related to the tropical sea surface temperature variation. Meanwhile, the north-oriented track patterns in the subtropics contribute the interannual variations of the LMI location with TRACK CHANGE. The changes of track patterns are significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFM.A25R1900R