Weather whiplash across Kansas: Quantification of changes in spatial and temporal trends

Weather whiplash defined here as the rapid change between dry and wet conditions -- stresses water management infrastructure such as reservoirs and may lead to reduced crop yield, soil erosion, negative water quality impacts, and increased use of surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we quantify historical spatial and temporal patterns in weather whiplash across Kansas and assess projections for potential future changes. To quantify weather whiplash, we use both station-based and gridded meteorological data to quantify the precipitation and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a meteorological index that considers both water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration). Using these two variables, we identify whiplash events at monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales across Kansas. To assess potential agricultural and hydrological impacts, we also use long-term (1900-present), station-based data to assess weather whiplash in each climate division within Kansas. The gridded meteorological data will be used to create spatially complete maps of precipitation and SPEI trends, allowing for temporal changes to be visualized. Preliminary results indicate that the frequency of weather whiplash is increasing in parts of Kansas, potentially driven by an increasing frequency of extreme meteorological events.