Nonlinear changes in precipitation and temperature across the globe

Increasing global atmospheric temperature heightens the hydrologic cycle and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and temperature events across many regions. Characterizing how hydrometeorologic extremes are expected to change in the future is critical for developing climate resiliency and mitigation and adaptation strategies. Nonetheless, it is also important to understand how such extremes vary in relation to the entire distribution of precipitation and temperature across the world. This study examines the hottest/coldest and wettest/driest extremes as well as the full distribution of temperature and precipitation events at various scales around the world. Analysis of the changing climate and extreme events is presented across different climate regions using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) historical and future simulations. In particular, shifts in the distribution and likelihood of different temperature and precipitation events are quantified and generally exhibit a nonlinear response to climate change. Using an ensemble of CMIP6 models, this study identifies the projected extent to which precipitation and temperature may change, what parts of the distribution are expected to be more sensitive than others, and how these anticipated changes compare across models and different parts of the world.