The Relationship Between Tropical Cyclone Translation Speeds and Aerosol Concentration

Tropical cyclones are large, convective storms that can cause massive amounts of damage. One important characteristic of these storms is its translation speed because a lower speed may cause more severe storm surge and higher amounts of precipitation. There are many different factors that can affect a tropical cyclones translation speeds, but one that has not been studied in-depth is aerosol concentration. In recent years, there have been multiple instances where slower-moving tropical cyclones have occurred in areas that also had higher aerosol concentrations. For example, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 stalled out over the Houston area, leading to 60 inches of rainfall and multiple deaths. Upon closer inspection to what the environmental conditions around Harvey were, it was observed that there also happened to be a higher concentration of aerosols. As such, this study sought to determine if there exists a relationship between tropical cyclone translation speeds and aerosol concentration. The translation speeds of 609 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean between 1980 and 2019 were calculated with data from the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. These speeds were spatiotemporally paired with aerosol concentration data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), resulting in 16,679 data points. Clustered data based on aerosol concentrations were used in a linear regression analysis where the aerosol concentration was the independent variable, and translation speed was the dependent variable. The regression indicates that there exists a statistically significant relationship where higher aerosol concentrations are correlated with slower tropical cyclones. The results of this study demonstrate why tropical cyclone forecasting models should take aerosol concentration into account. Additionally, given the many consequences of slower tropical cyclones, such as more severe flooding, certain actions should be taken to prepare communities for these storms and mitigate their damage when it is known that there are high amounts of aerosol in the area. Furthermore, national and international institutions should take measures to reduce the human output of aerosols into the atmosphere in order to lessen the damages that tropical cyclones can cause.