This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios with different combinations of NPIs, our empirical findings suggest that countries may avoid the lockdown policy with imposing school closure, mask wearing and centralized quarantine to reach similar outcomes on controlling the COVID-19 infection. Our results also suggest that, as of April 4th, 2020, certain countries such as the U.S. and Singapore may require additional measures of NPIs in order to control disease transmissions more effectively, while other countries may cautiously consider to gradually lift some NPIs to mitigate the costs to the overall economy.
- Pub Date:
- April 2020
- Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution;
- Physics - Physics and Society;
- Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods;
- Statistics - Applications
- accepted to Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)