Warming or cooling from a random walk process in the temperature
Abstract
A simple 3parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that exceeds the observed global warming of the earth surface temperature from 1850 to 2019. On the other hand, there is a 50\% likelihood for runs of our model resulting in cooling. If a similar random walk process can be used as an effective model for fluctuations of the global earth surface temperature, effects due to internal and external forcing could be considerably over or underestimated.
 Publication:

arXiv eprints
 Pub Date:
 February 2020
 DOI:
 10.48550/arXiv.2002.00262
 arXiv:
 arXiv:2002.00262
 Bibcode:
 2020arXiv200200262B
 Keywords:

 Physics  Computational Physics;
 Condensed Matter  Statistical Mechanics;
 Physics  Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
 EPrint:
 4 pages, 8 figures