Electoral College bias and the 2020 presidential election

Donald Trump's 2016 victory in the Electoral College without leading in the popular vote has led to speculation of a repeat in 2020. If the Democrats were to win the popular vote but by less than a landslide, could they be thwarted from stopping Trump once again? We examine how Electoral College outcomes are conditioned by how states had voted in previous elections. Our simulations suggest that in 2020, the Electoral College bias is likely to again favor the Republicans. However, the expectation is less distortion of the popular will than in 2016. There is even the possibility that if Trump was to win the 2020 popular vote by a slim margin, it could be he who loses the Electoral College.