Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones
Abstract
Little had been known about whether the ongoing climate changes had already affected observed global tropical cyclones (TCs). This study revealed that a climate change in global TC activity over 1980 to 2018 has been more evident in the spatial pattern of TC occurrence, rather than the number of global TCs. The total effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions on global TC distribution is spatially inhomogeneous: Increases and decreases in TC occurrence depend on the region. However, our climate models project decreases in the number of global TCs toward the end of the 21st century due to the dominant effect of greenhouse gases on decreasing TC occurrence in most of the tropics, consistent with many previous studies.
- Publication:
-
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
- Pub Date:
- May 2020
- DOI:
- 10.1073/pnas.1922500117
- Bibcode:
- 2020PNAS..11710706M