Analytical approach to the diversification effect evaluation of the innovative engineering projects portfolio for a machine-building enterprise

As a tool to reduce the risks of innovation at the machine-building enterprises the authors suggest a new methodology aimed at point-based assessment of innovation risks. However, the experts are more likely to give interval estimates when assessing the risks of innovation. To work with interval estimates, a new software system was developed. The authors suggest using a market model that assumes a division of risks into systematic and non-systematic and allows to take into account the effect of diversification of the innovative portfolio of the machine-building enterprise. The steps of the methodology and its approbation on the data on innovative projects of one of Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos) enterprises are presented in the paper.