Occurrence rates of planets orbiting M Stars: applying ABC to Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2, and 2MASS data
Abstract
We present robust planet occurrence rates for Kepler planet candidates around M stars for planet radii R_{p} = 0.54 R_{⊕} and orbital periods P = 0.5256 d using the approximate Bayesian computation technique. This work incorporates the final Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalogue and data products and augments them with updated stellar properties using Gaia DR2 and 2MASS point source catalogue. We apply a set of selection criteria to select a sample of 1746 Kepler M dwarf targets that host 89 associated planet candidates. These earlytype M dwarfs and late K dwarfs were selected from crossreferenced targets using several photometric quality flags from Gaia DR2 and colourmagnitude cuts using 2MASS magnitudes. We estimate a habitable zone occurrence rate of $f_{\textrm {M,HZ}} = 0.33^{+0.10}_{0.12}$ for planets with 0.751.5 R_{⊕} size. We caution that occurrence rate estimates for Kepler M stars are sensitive to the choice of prior due to the small sample of target stars and planet candidates. For example, we find an occurrence rate of $4.2^{+0.6}_{0.6}$ or $8.4^{+1.2}_{1.1}$ planets per M dwarf (integrating over R_{p} = 0.54 R_{⊕} and P = 0.5256 d) for our two choices of prior. These occurrence rates are greater than those for FGK dwarf target when compared at the same range of orbital periods, but similar to occurrence rates when computed as a function of equivalent stellar insolation. Combining our result with recent studies of exoplanet architectures indicates that most, and potentially all, earlytype M dwarfs harbour planetary systems.
 Publication:

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
 Pub Date:
 October 2020
 DOI:
 10.1093/mnras/staa2391
 arXiv:
 arXiv:2002.02573
 Bibcode:
 2020MNRAS.498.2249H
 Keywords:

 methods: statistical;
 planetary systems;
 planets and satellites: detection;
 planets and satellites: fundamental parameters;
 stars: lowmass;
 stars: statistics;
 Astrophysics  Earth and Planetary Astrophysics;
 Astrophysics  Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
 EPrint:
 15 pages, 4 figures