Enhanced activity of the Aurigids 2019 and predictions for 2021

The Aurigid meteor shower is known since its first remarkable activity observed in 1935 by Hoffmeister and associated with comet C/1911 N1 (Kiess). An outburst was predicted and subsequently observed in 2007. Other rate enhancements have been reported in other years. In 2019, the ZHR level was significantly above the average, while the population index was very close to the long-term average value of r=2.50. A peak ZHR=62+/-12 is found at solar longitude 157.918 degrees (2019 August 31, 21h22m UT) which is close to the node at solar longitude 158 degrees. A possible explanation for this activity is the existence of a very elongated 1-revolution trail released from the parent an orbit earlier than 1935. Enhanced rates are expected to occur during the 2021 return close to solar longitude 158.396 degrees on 2021 August 31, 21h35m UT.