Repeat of 1905 Kangra, India earthquake: A case study

The Himalayan region has witnessed devastating earthquakes in the past. In the recent past earthquakes for which documentary and /or instrumental record exist include 1897 Shillong Plateau (M 8.7), 1905 Kangra (M 8.0), 1934 Bihar-Nepal (M 8.3) and 1950 Assam (M 8.7) earthquakes. The 4 April 1905 Kangra earthquake had claimed an estimated ~ 20,000 human lives. A scenario was built for the occurrence of a hypothetical Mw 8.0 earthquake at Mandi, very close to the epicenter of the 1905 Kangra earthquake. Taking into account the intensity distribution resulting from this earthquake, typology of houses and current population density, it was estimated that if this earthquake occurred in the middle of the night, the total loss of human lives in the states of Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and the Union Territory of Chandigarh would be close to a million. This information was shared with the state and central authorities of India, followed by an year- long preparation in preparing the above mentioned four states to develop earthquake resilient society. A mega mock drill was conducted for the occurrence of the earthquake, virtually, at 11 am on 13 February 2013. Observations were conducted on pre-selected locations to assess the preparedness to mitigate effects of such an earthquake. The participation of state and central government machinery and public was very encouraging and pointed out the short comings that need to be addressed. Here, this case study is presented.