Developing Future Land Use Scenarios at the River Basin Scale: An Example from the Delaware River Basin

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) region hosts more than 8.2 million residents and provides ecosystem services that support multiple - and sometimes competing - commercial, industrial, recreational and residential uses. Land use change scenarios are plausible stories about how land uses in a region might change over time. Our approach to forecasting land use change in the DRB out to 2070 is both data driven (i.e. informed by quantitative analyses of past land use change and best available data for future trends) and stakeholder driven (i.e. using stakeholder input to develop narratives of future land use scenarios). We developed and followed a tiered and iterative approach for engaging community stakeholders. First, we asked stakeholders to share perceptions of future opportunities and challenges using a series of focus groups and a basin-wide survey. Next, we held a focused workshop with a representative group of key experts. Using both qualitative and quantitative data as guidance, we collaboratively wrote a "recent trends" land use change scenario and two alternative future scenarios, each with divergent population forecasts, development patterns, and conservation values. Information gathered for these narratives was also structured by our quantitative and spatially explicit modeling framework, so that the narratives could easily be translated into modeling inputs. As we have continued to expand the applications of quantitative land use change modeling in the Delaware River Basin, we continue to consult our end users to ensure that the land use change model outputs are both useful and useable, a time consuming but important process to maximize adoption and use.