Remote Sensing and Modeling of Forage Availability in Response to Climate Change over New Mexico's Rangelands to Support Food-Energy-Water Nexus

New Mexico's rangelands are significant source of forage for livestock and thus constitute an important component of the state Food-Energy-Water Nexus. However, rangeland forage availability is challenged and vulnerable the most among in the western United States due to drought putting their sustainability at risk. To sustain livestock production and rangeland pasture productivity, it is important to evaluate the availability of forage every year using innovative tools and datasets. Advanced remote sensing datasets (e.g., Sentinel 2A) and modeling tools certainly promise to help in providing accurate estimation and prediction of forage availability in response to climate change (e.g., extreme weather events like drought). The objective of this study is to develop a system dynamics (SD) model to provide a better understanding on the effects of climate change, water use and availability, and the need for feed supplement to ensure an adequate forage availability for livestock production. In addition to ground-based forage availability data, the SD modeling approach will help in integrating and evaluating remotely sensed net primary productivity, vegetation indices, and leaf area index data available at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Changes in the forage availability will be effectively simulated and predicted using this integrated modeling approach. The results of this study will provide useful, more accurate, and up to date information on forage availability to support decision-making for effective management of interconnected FEW Nexus components in response to climate change.