Predictive assessment of transmission of cholera

Outbreaks of cholera can be divided into two components: the trigger and the transmission of the disease in a human population. Growth of cholera bacteria in the environment is linked to hydroclimatic processes that demonstrate strong seasonality which, in turn, influence the ecological niche of the vibrio. The transmission part of cholera is the mechanism of spread of infection within the human population. Once the disease is triggered (initiated), transmission of cholera is accelerated by fecal-oral transmission (enhanced by regional hydroclimatic processes), and ultimately, a disease outbreak occurs. Outbreak of disaese will likely to follow similar phenological pathways of transmission, with different magnitudes of infection levels as a function of modalities of interaction of hydroclimatic processes, within human population. A hybrid ecological niche approach based disease trigger and transmission simulation model was developed to assess influence of hydroclimatic processes on environmental reservoirs under which cholera bacteria survives in the aquatic environment and then interacts with human population. We will discuss critical feedback loops that generate complicated relationships of a human-pathogen behavior. The results will provide a earth observation inspired and population based platform for a four to six week lead predictive lead time of transmission of cholera in human population.