Modeling Future Land Cover and Climate Changes to Analyze their Effects on Runoff and Nutrient Accumulation in Belize

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Belize have critical implications for its rivers and waterways, which transport excess nutrients and pollutants into the nearby Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System. This project focused on analyzing Belize's LULC changes and their respective effects on runoff accumulation. Terrset's Land Change Modeler software helped identify drivers of deforestation from 2008 to 2018, and these drivers were applied in combination with an annual Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product to model future land cover scenarios through 2100. The scenarios were defined as `Heavy Development', `Business as Usual', and `Conservation Focus' based on varying deforestation rates . To develop more holistic predictions of Belize's water quality, these future LULC scenario maps were run through NOAA's Nonpoint Source Pollution and Erosion Comparison Tool in conjunction with future climate change precipitation scenarios from the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Statistical analyses were run on both larger scale watersheds and the subwatersheds within the Belize River Watershed. Analyzing deforestation trends and the drivers behind hydrologic processes provides insight into the future health of Belize's waterways. The use of more extreme LULC and climate change scenarios can convey the implications of policies to local decision makers and facilitate preventative interventions that mitigate future harm to critical ecosystems.