Effects of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) on Tropical Storm Activity in the North Atlantic

Keneshia Hibbert^1,2,3, Equisha Glenn^1,2,4Jorge Corredor^1,2, Jorge E. Gonzalez^2,5

NOAA Center for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing Technologies

Earth & Atmospheric Science Department, The City College of New York, New York, NY

Civil Engineering Department, The City College of New York, New York, NY

Department of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, NY

Abstract:

The Mid Atlantic and the Caribbean are warming at an accelerated pace than other tropical regions. Warming sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in this region have many implications for extreme weather events. Within recent years, the Caribbean and U.S. have been hit with several intense hurricanes that may be a result of recent warming sea-surface temperatures. This study aims to investigate the effects of rising sea-surface temperatures on tropical storm activity to identify the possible correlation with frequency and/or intensity of these tropical storms. Understanding the role SSTs play in the occurrence of tropical storms is important for coastal communities' efforts for environmental hazard mitigation. SSTs in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), the region extending from the eastern coast of North America to the western coast of Africa, are analyzed over time during the active hurricane season months from August through November. Initially, the time of interest is from 1982 - 2019, to utilize observation data, versus reanalysis data, available from the NOAA's Optimum Interpolated Sea-Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset. A 38-year climatological analysis; running monthly, annual, and seasonal trends shows SSTs increasing annually at statistically significant levels detrended without the El Nino signal. It is also observed that the intensity of the tropical storms as measured by maximum winds is increasing during similar period at statistically significant levels.