Energy Development Pathways for Low-Carbon Emissions by 2050 in East Africa

Countries in Africa face multi-faceted challenges requiring solutions that meet basic access/infrastructure needs for all while limiting environmental degradation. With an increasing population and constrained budgets, finding low-cost ways to alleviate climate change impacts is a critical part of achieving local, national, and global goals. In recent years, there has been a significant effort by the international community to promote universal access to electricity in developing countries. However, the role of African countries in low carbon energy transitions is severely under-studied; hence this paper fills an important knowledge gap.

Using a systematic review, we develop an energy resource and technology portfolio for East Africa. We then use a least-cost optimization model to assess cost-effective technology mixes under different scenarios for future demand. Using indicative costs, we run a business as usual and CO₂ policy simulations from the year 2020 to 2050. By quantifying the costs of low carbon emissions in East Africa, we aim to provide information that will inform climate negotiations and national decision-making. This energy optimization modeling exercise is not prescriptive and should be interpreted as a `what if' scenario analysis.

Our preliminary review of the literature suggests renewables and decentralized energy, will likely play a crucial role in shaping a sustainable energy landscape and building climate-resilient economies. We anticipate the results from this study to show carbon-neutral technologies alone will not be sufficient to achieve net-zero targets by 2050. Through technological and institutional leapfrogging, East African countries have the opportunity to invest in sustainable low carbon energy technologies. This study will contribute to the improvement of national energy planning and resource allocation, offer alternatives to reduce environmental impacts of current business as usual trajectory. Additionally, the results can inform the international community on how to support the development of low-carbon energy systems on the continent. There is no "cookie-cutter" one size fits all solution; therefore, the research design is adaptable for local and regional analysis.