What is different about different net-zero carbon electricity systems?
Abstract
There is considerable evidence that the availability of at least one firm generating technology can overcome geophysical limitations of 100% variable-renewable energy based electricity systems and substantially reduce the cost of deep decarbonization in the power sector. Firm resources can operate at any time of the year and for as long as needed to maintain electricity system reliability. The set of low- and zero-carbon firm technologies is quite diverse, ranging from high variable cost, low capital cost, highly flexible generating technologies such as biogas or hydrogen combustion turbines to low or zero variable cost, capital-intensive resources such as nuclear and geothermal, with medium capital and variable cost resources such as natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) in between. Furthermore, electricity system modeling shows additional cost savings in cases where multiple firm technology options are available. The current literature lacks a thorough explanation for why these distinctive firm generating technologies are each individually sufficient to deliver substantial cost reductions relative to portfolios restricted to wind, solar, and energy storage alone, yet remain imperfect substitutes that can coexist in a least-cost portfolio. To address this gap, this paper seeks to explain the distinct roles played by different firm low-carbon generation technologies in decarbonized electricity systems, including nuclear power, natural gas plants with CCS, and combustion of zero-carbon fuels. We also assess the role of long-duration energy storage in competition and conjunction with firm generating options. Through detailed analysis and comparison of operational results from three long-term electricity system capacity expansion planning models on a case study of electricity decarbonization in California and the U.S. Western Interconnection, we show how each technology has the potential to occupy a distinctive functional niche and provide incremental value to a zero-carbon system. In doing so, we highlight the benefits of keeping an expansive range of technology options to meet emissions reductions goals for the power sector while maintaining operational reliability and affordability.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMGC080..04B
- Keywords:
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- 1610 Atmosphere;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1615 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1635 Oceans;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1645 Solid Earth;
- GLOBAL CHANGE