Exploring Technology Pathways to Achieve Deep Decarbonization in the United States by Mid-Century

Our objective is to identify the US deep decarbonization technology pathways using Temoa, an Energy system optimization model (ESOM). ESOMs are used to explore future scenarios and associated outcomes over the next several decades. Most previous national-level work has focused on low carbon options in the electric sector, and only a few examine the US energy system in its entirety. Among those with a full energy system perspective, the analysis is generally limited to a small set of scenarios that vary a few key assumptions. Conventional scenario analysis does not adequately address large future uncertainties.

We use a technique called modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) to systematically explore the decision space under a stringent carbon cap scenario (95% reduction in 2050 below the 2017 emissions level). MGA is an algorithm designed to produce solutions that have similar system costs but are very different in decision space.