Centralized Heating Cost Uncertainty and Climate Change at Wright-Patterson AFB

Over the last 20 years, natural gas has replaced coal as the preferred fossil fuel for heat and power generation across the United States, due to its lower cost and reduced environmental impacts. While most conversion decisions are driven by cost savings, proponents of cleaner energy production often cite emissions reductions as a tangential benefit. Over the same time, climate change and its impact on the environment and society have come to the forefront of scientific inquiry. One example of the transition from coal to natural gas can be found in Dayton, OH. Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB) invested over $25M from 2014 to 2016, to retrofit two coal-fired steam-heat-generating plants with natural gas equipment. Economic analyses used to inform these long-term infrastructure decisions rarely consider the uncertainty of climate change. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of economic cost and environmental impact of both coal and natural gas when considering the future uncertainty of climactic changes in the region. Through the analysis of WPAFB fuel accounting and historical weather data, a model was calibrated which connects specific weather indicators to installation fuel demand. The sensitivity of each fuel demand to weather can be forecast using a range of expected outcomes for climate change across the region. Using this predictive model for fuel use, we observe and compare the range of possible outcomes for long term operating cost, environmental impacts and how warming climate affects natural gas conversion return-on-investment. The results of this study help inform policy and aid in the long-term economic assessment of similar construction projects across the Department of Defense and Midwestern United States.