Envisioning Systems for Equitable Climate Adaptation

According to the aphorism "all models are wrong," the goal of modeling is not be "right" but to be useful: to provide either academic insights or practical guidance. Using examples from climate adaptation, I argue that models seeking to inform practice and influence decision-makers should adopt systems thinking, integrate social systems, and embrace uncertainty. A systems approach to climate adaptation is necessary to assess trade-offs and to account for the difficulty in defining the goals and outcome criteria for successful adaptation. A challenge of systems modeling is to define system boundaries without reinforcing existing silos. Too often, models omit social systems beyond rational actor economics, which inherently limits the utility of the model. Formal social systems - laws, governments - and informal institutions, cultures, values, biases all affect the accuracy and applicability of models. While some seemingly irrational behaviors can be described by probabilities or averages, such aggregates may be of limited value to a decision-maker who must engage with specific individuals and contexts. Social systems often include a high degree of uncertainty. Explicitly acknowledging the limits of the model may prove more useful than attempting to provide greater certainty. Systems models are likely to be most effective when they acknowledge their own limits. No matter how detailed a model becomes, it is fundamentally unable to make ethical or political decisions - which are at the heart of climate adaptation - and failure to acknowledge this limitation may promote inequitable actions under the guise of "scientific correctness." To be useful, models may need to note how and why they are wrong.