Continuous CH4 and δ13CH4 Measurements in London Demonstrate Under-Reported Natural Gas Leakage

Assessment of bottom-up greenhouse gas emissions estimates through independent methods is needed to demonstrate whether reported values are accurate or if bottom-up methodologies need to be refined. Previous studies of measurements of atmospheric methane (CH₄) in London revealed that inventories substantially underestimated the amount of natural gas CH₄ ^1,2. We report atmospheric CH₄ concentrations and δ¹³CH₄ measurements from Imperial College London since early 2018 using a Picarro G2201-i analyser. Measurements from Sept. 2019-Feb. 2020 were compared to the values simulated using the dispersion model NAME coupled with the UK national atmospheric emissions inventory, NAEI, and the global inventory, EDGAR, for emissions outside the UK. Simulations of CH₄ concentration and δ¹³CH₄ values were generated using nested NAME back-trajectories with horizontal spatial resolutions of 2 km, 10 km and 30 km. Observed concentrations were underestimated in the simulations by 32 %, and there was no correlation between the measured and simulated δ¹³CH₄ values. CH₄ from waste sources and natural gas both comprised of 32 % of the CH₄ added by regional emissions. To estimate the isotopic source signatures for individual pollution events, an algorithm was created for automatically analysing measurement data by using the Keeling plot approach. Over 60 % of source signatures had values higher than -50 ‰, suggesting large amounts of natural gas CH₄. The analyses based on model-data comparison of δ¹³CH₄ and on Keeling plot source signature emission both indicate that emissions due to natural gas leaks in London are being under-reported in the NAEI. These results suggest that estimates of CH₄ emissions in urban areas need to be revised in the CH₄ emissions inventories.

¹ Helfter, C. et al. (2016), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(16), pp. 10543-10557

² Zazzeri, G. et al. (2017), Scientific Reports, 7(1), pp. 1-13