Spatial distribution modeling of eucalypt bark traits significant to fire behaviour in SE Australian forests

Eucalypt forests (tree species within the genera Eucalyptus, Angophora and Corymbia) make up some of the most flammable ecosystems on Earth. Although there are several reasons this is the case, eucalypt bark can be a significant contributor. Specific eucalypt bark traits, in particular fibrous bark and bark shed in long ribbons, are known to significantly influence fire behaviour in eucalypt forests by altering fuel continuity, intensity of spotting and/or litter fuel ignitibility. However, no definitive list of species within these broad bark trait groupings currently exists. In this study, we identified eucalypt species that are known to affect fire behaviour in SE Australian forests as a result of their bark type. We modeled the distributions of these species on the basis of statistical relationships between their occurrences and environmental covariates in forests and woodlands. This study represents an important first look at finer-scale variations in bark fuel hazard potential within broad vegetation classes in SE Australian forests. This study aims to quantify interactions between environmental variables that influence fuel composition. The models developed here are designed to generate occurrence probabilities of bark types in remote areas and other places for which vegetation survey data are not available. Through these predictions, we hope to provide fire managers with hitherto unavailable information that will allow them to optimise burn plans for fuel reduction in areas with the greatest risk of dangerous fuel conditions.