Prospects for Resolving the Hubble Constant Tension with Standard Sirens
Abstract
The Hubble constant (H_{0} ) estimated from the local Cepheidsupernova distance ladder is in 3 σ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent H_{0} estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon supernova sample yields an H_{0} posterior near identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of ∼50 binary neutron star "standard sirens" (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.
 Publication:

Physical Review Letters
 Pub Date:
 February 2019
 DOI:
 10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.061105
 arXiv:
 arXiv:1802.03404
 Bibcode:
 2019PhRvL.122f1105F
 Keywords:

 Astrophysics  Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics
 EPrint:
 Eight pages, four figures. v3: matches version accepted by Physical Review Letters. Code available at https://github.com/sfeeney/hh0