Adaptational lag to temperature in valley oak (Quercus lobata) can be mitigated by genome-informed assisted gene flow

Forested ecosystems provide many ecological, economic, and societal benefits, but those benefits are threatened by climate change. Conservation strategies often assume that plants are currently growing in conditions well-suited to their growth, survival, and reproduction, regardless of whether this assumption is valid. We show that an ecosystem-foundational species in California, valley oak (Quercus lobata), is already mismatched to current temperature and will likely experience further declines in growth rates as temperatures rise over the next century. Given this mismatch, new approaches to climate change management are needed. By using genomic information and identifying genotypes with faster growth rates under warmer temperatures, we present an approach to mitigate negative consequences of rising temperatures for species that may already be experiencing maladaptation.