Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
Abstract
Climate change can affect the distribution and abundance of marine life, with consequences for goods and services provided to people. Because different models can lead to divergent conclusions about marine futures, we present an integrated global ocean assessment of climate change impacts using an ensemble of multiple climate and ecosystem models. It reveals that global marine animal biomass will decline under all emission scenarios, driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. Notably, climate change impacts are amplified at higher food web levels compared with phytoplankton. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the global ocean to date and can inform adaptive management and conservation of marine resources under climate change.
- Publication:
-
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
- Pub Date:
- June 2019
- DOI:
- 10.1073/pnas.1900194116
- Bibcode:
- 2019PNAS..11612907L