Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation

Intrinsic institutional or ecological differences are often invoked to explain resource conservation success or failure. However, alternative conservation outcomes instead may be caused by path-dependent processes, where historical contingencies trap similar institutions in dramatically different, but predictable, states. We model social-ecological processes in cooperatively managed natural resources and show that institutional path dependence can create alternative stable states of conservation or overharvesting. We find that the model significantly explains a large dataset of well-studied marine fisheries. Highly productive and costly resources are, unexpectedly, most likely to exhibit the alternative stable states of strong depletion or conservation. Path dependence presents challenges and opportunities, including the possibility that short but intensive harvest reduction efforts can generate self-perpetuating conservation outcomes.