Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations
Abstract
The number of people able to end Earth's technical civilization has heretofore been small. Emerging dualuse technologies, such as biotechnology, may give similar power to thousands or millions of individuals. To quantitatively investigate the ramifications of such a marked shift on the survival of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial technical civilizations, this paper presents a twoparameter model for civilizational lifespans, i.e. the quantity L in Drake's equation for the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations. One parameter characterizes the population lethality of a civilization's biotechnology and the other characterizes the civilization's psychosociology. L is demonstrated to be less than the inverse of the product of these two parameters. Using empiric data from PubMed to inform the biotechnology parameter, the model predicts human civilization's median survival time as decades to centuries, even with optimistic psychosociological parameter values, thereby positioning biotechnology as a proximate threat to human civilization. For an ensemble of civilizations having some median calculated survival time, the model predicts that, after 80 times that duration, only one in 10^{24} civilizations will survive  a tempo and degree of winnowing compatible with Hanson's `Great Filter.' Thus, assuming that civilizations universally develop advanced biotechnology, before they become vigorous interstellar colonizers, the model provides a resolution to the Fermi paradox.
 Publication:

International Journal of Astrobiology
 Pub Date:
 October 2019
 DOI:
 10.1017/S1473550418000447
 arXiv:
 arXiv:1709.01149
 Bibcode:
 2019IJAsB..18..445S
 Keywords:

 Drake equation;
 Fermi paradox;
 biotechnology;
 civlilzation lifespan;
 mathematical model;
 Physics  Popular Physics
 EPrint:
 4 figures. In press with: International Journal of Astrobiology