Estimation forecast of the Russian Federation forests carbon balance based on the long-term scenarios of forest complex development

The study assessed the carbon balance of the forests in Russia according to long-term plans for the economic development of the forest sector until 2050, taking into account the expected climate changes. The calculated data of the regional climate model for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP-8.5 plan to assess the impact of changes in physical abiotic factors on the forest ecosystems were used in the work. Two key parameters were taken into account in calculations that could be affected by expected climate change that are forest fires and plant productivity. The forecast is carried out according to three scenarios for the development of the forest complex of Russia: inertial, basic and strategic. The overall carbon balance of Russia is expected to be at the level of 187.5-251.2 MtC per year, depending on the scenarios of forest management and growth of forests productivity, these data accord the current values. Maintaining a positive carbon balance in forests will require the development of measures to improve fire control in forestry, timber technologies and reforestation.