Observations of the Kepler Field with TESS: Predictions for Planet Yield and Observable Features

We examine the ability of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to detect and improve our understanding of planetary systems in the Kepler field. By modeling the expected transits of all confirmed and candidate planets detected by Kepler as expected to be observed by TESS, we provide a probabilistic forecast of the detection of each Kepler planet in TESS data. We find that TESS has a greater than 50% chance of detecting 260 of these planets at the 3σ level in one sector of observations and an additional 120 planets in two sectors. Most of these are large planets in short orbits around their host stars, although a small number of rocky planets are expected to be recovered. Most of these systems have only one known transiting planet; in only ∼5% of known multiply transiting systems do we anticipate more than one planet to be recovered. When these planets are recovered, we expect TESS to be a powerful tool to characterize transit timing variations. Using Kepler-88 (KOI-142) as an example, we show that TESS will improve measurements of planet-star mass ratios and orbital parameters, and significantly reduce the transit timing uncertainty in future years. Because TESS will be most sensitive to hot Jupiters, we research whether TESS will be able to detect tidal orbital decay in these systems. We find two confirmed planetary systems (Kepler-2 b and Kepler-13 b) and five candidate systems that will be good candidates to detect tidal decay.