Community-wide Space Weather Scoreboards: Facilitating the Validation of Real-time CME, Flare, and SEP Forecasts

Testing predictive capabilities before event onset is important and especially relevant for validating space weather models. We describe three real-time forecast validation projects facilitated by the CCMC via forecast collection "scoreboards": (1) CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength, (2) flare occurrence probability, (3) SEP onset, duration, peak flux, probability, and overall profile, and (4) IMF at L1. The scoreboards enable world-wide community involvement in real-time predictions, foster community validation projects, and ultimately help researchers improve their forecasts.

The "CME arrival time scoreboard" (https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ ) provides a central location for the community to: submit their CME arrival time forecast in real-time, quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time, and compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived.

The "Flare Scoreboard" (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.php ) project is led by Trinity College Dublin and the UK Met Office. The full disk and active region flare forecasts can currently be viewed on an interactive display overlaid on an SDO/AIA or HMI image and is paired with a display of flare probability time series.

The "SEP Scoreboard" (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php ) project is led by BIRA-IASB and the UK Met Office. The SEP scoreboard captures SEP onset, duration, peak flux, probability, all-clear, and overall profile. In 2018, Johnson Space Center's Space Radiation Analysis Group has become involved in the SEP scoreboard in support of upcoming human exploration missions.

The "Bz Scoreboard" (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/bz.php ) is the latest project and is led by Predictive Science and University of Reading. It is currently in planning phase and will be designed as an automated system to gather real-time interplanetary magnetic field forecasts at L1 and evaluate their accuracy.