Validating the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for applications in northern Europe: Ground magnetic perturbation validation
Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of the University of Michigan's Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) in the prediction of ground magnetic perturbations in the northern Europe region. The SWMF consists of an MHD code which is a Block Adaptive Tree Solar-wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US), with several other models which can be coupled together. We use the the global magnetosphere, ionosphere electrodynamics and inner magnetosphere coupled SWMF. The SWMF is currently used for space weather forecast by the by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC) and at the Community Coordinated Modeling Centre (CCMC). The SWMF was selected to transit to operation after a series of community-wide validations of several numerical models on a global scale. In our study we further validate the SWMF for applications in the northern Europe region. The model predictions are done for selected ground magnetometer stations between 59o - 78o magnetic latitudes spanning 5 magnetic local hours. The performance is quantified using the metrics-based analyses, normalized root-mean-square error and cross correlation coefficient. The different metrics are derived from contingency tables built for each event and station. Investigated metrics include the probability of detection, probability of false alarm detection, Heidke Skill Score and frequency bias of the model. The variation of the model performance is investigated from event to event, and for different magnetic latitudes, and magnetic local times.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMSM13F3373K
- Keywords:
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- 1910 Data assimilation;
- integration and fusion;
- INFORMATICS;
- 1942 Machine learning;
- INFORMATICS;
- 2753 Numerical modeling;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS;
- 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHER