Testing the OVATION Prime (PC) as a Nowcast Model of Aurora Location

During periods of geomagnetic activity precipitating magnetospheric electrons with initial energies higher than 1 keV actively participate in high-latitude chemical reactions between recombination and solar radiation ionization processes. The auroral ionosphere model, providing estimates of polar ionosphere parameters requires calculation of sporadic ionization rate caused by high-latitude corpuscular interactions. For that purpose we use OVATION Prime (2010) model (OP-2010) as the most advanced model which is based on spectral measurements of different auroral particle species onboard DMSP spacecraft. The advantage of this model is that it is parameterized by the Solar Wind driving via Newell's coupling function which predicts auroral power. However, SW measured far ahead of dayside magnetopause at ACE spacecraft location (Lagrange point, L1) in some cases does not impact the magnetosphere (or contact it partially) and aurora predicted by the model is not consistent with reality. We reduced this model inconsistency using PC-index as a measure of SW energy that directly penetrates to the magnetosphere i.e. the PC-index (and its derivatives) was introduced as the main model parameter (OVATION Prime (PC), OP-2010PC). Comparison of integrated auroral precipitation power provided by modified model and Polar UVI observations have shown that accuracy of modified model version higher than original one and it describes substorm auroral dynamics at 1-min time scales significantly better. In this work we present comparison of auroral oval boundaries obtained from ground-based and spacecraft observations versus those predicted by the OVATION Prime (PC) model.