Development of Real-Time Verification System for the ASSA Model
Abstract
The KSWC operates about 60 space environment forecast models, Currently the reliability and accuracy of the models are manually verified. Automatic verification systems for the models currently in operation and available are needed to improve the accuracy of the forecast models and to ensure objective verification of the forecast accuracy. A verification system has been developed to automatically validate the space environment forecast models and applied to the ASSA models. The Space Environment Forecast Model Verification System is a system that standardizes and verifies 20 metrics recommended by WMO after each model's forecasting and observation data. 1. construct of meta DB(model and verifying data) 2. Model data collection and standardization 3. Model data verification 4. The results of verification are comprised of web page expression. The ASSA model produces sunspot detection and classification, sunspot location and flare probability every hour. After verifying the model's output and actual observations, the sunspot detection and classification and sunspot location showed high hit rate and the probability of flare occurrence was high. The verification system will also be applied to other forecasting models.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMSH33C3355C
- Keywords:
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- 4323 Human impact;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 7594 Instruments and techniques;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY;
- 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7934 Impacts on technological systems;
- SPACE WEATHER